I’ll admit that all the hullabaloo surrounding which films will win an Academy Award amounts to little more than glorified silliness. While recognizing people for a job well-done is a most worthy undertaking, assigning merit to a piece of art remains risky business. True, suggesting that movies deserve the label of “art” can be, in itself, a treacherous diving off point. Nonetheless, we belong to a species that deeply enjoys and feels called to order and rank the world around us.
That said, we must recognize that the Academy Awards are just that — honors bestowed upon artists by artists. These are not the People’s Choice Awards and what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences sees in a film should not be confused with what the average movie-goer enjoys. Even the Academy itself recognized this fact until last year when it made a decision of singular stupidity. It decided to forget its own place and began appealing to the masses by widening the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. Not only did such a decision result in the dilution of the Academy brand (e.g., The Blind Side — enough said), but indicated that advertising dollars and viewership numbers were more important than awarding esteem to worthy pieces of cinematic art.
Now, I haven’t forgotten that this whole matter of ranking art is one of supreme silliness, but at least prior to last year the Academy took its role seriously and did not kowtow to the whims and wishes of the masses. If you’re going to do something as ridiculous as assigning value to art, you should at least do it with consistency and with respect to oneself and to that which one destines to judge. When you open the flood gates, one should not be surprised to find all sorts of debris floating to the surface.
Having gotten that off my chest, I now shall get about my business of double silliness by attempting to prognosticate those films that the Academy will nominate for the 2011 Best Picture. And, yes, I do see the ridiculousness of trying to foretell a list of favorites for a small body of artists who will rank something that is probably best left unranked. Yet, I do it with the highest degree of integrity and respect and that certainly adds value to this undertaking (or, at least, that’s what I tell myself).
For the sake of order, I have divided my prognostications into three categories: certain nominees, likely nominees, and long-shot nominees.
Certain Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Welcome back, Danny Boyle and Hello, James Franco. Based on the book, “Between a Rock and a Hard Place,” it tells the riveting true story of Aron Ralston (aka, the adventurer who cut off his arm when it got stuck between a rock and, um, a rock . . . oops, I guess he should have told someone where he was going).
And the make-up nomination of the year goes to The Dark Knight; oh, I mean Inception. A mind-twist of a movie that lacks heart (see my review here), but which has one very noteworthy element — Christopher Nolan.
Here is our standard Academy period piece, but with a dash of humor (Geoffrey Rush), a sprinkle of good-nature (Colin Firth), and a shocking secret ingredient that the MPAA found off-putting.
Dearest David Fincher, we think you’re brilliant but most Americans don’t like downer movies. Mark Zuckerberg may have billions of dollars, but we need every advertising cent we can get.
– Your Friends at the Academy
Pixar. Enough said.
Likely Nominees (in alphabetical order):
Artistic. Dark. Darren Aronofsky. These traits make Black Swan a difficult film for the Academy to resist. Mr. Aronofsky, please remember that a nomination is like a win . . . really.
Ah, here is our political film of the year. Never mind the quality of the film (see my review here), it has amazingly talented straight actors playing gay characters and that has a striking familiarity to a far superior film that the Academy snubbed. Retribution never tasted sweeter for this little film that could.
The Coen Brothers. Jeff Bridges. Matt Damon. The wild west. What more can I say?
Long-Shot Nominees (in alphabetical order):
The geriatric choice of the year. Not enough films for this demographic and Red isn’t good enough to make the cut. Let’s not forget who makes up the vast majority of the Academy.
The NC-17 rating has made this valentine even bluer. The Weinsteins may fight it, but the content may be too much for the Academy. Expect to see some love for Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams, however.
The “Indie” choice of the year. May sneak in with the new ten nominee policy, but is too obscure to make it far up the ladder. Jennifer Lawrence will likely get some respect ala Melissa Leo in Frozen River.
Very few will argue that 
